Saxo Market Call
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Saxo Market Call
For the aspirational trader and financial markets professional. Coming at you most trading days, the Saxo Market Call is the high frequency podcast for real-time analysis of the financial markets across asset classes, from forex and rates to equities and commodities.
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Stunning market complacency as oil still not flowing through Hormuz
Today we discuss a sense of unease that the market remains as complacent as it does given the magnitude of the disruption of oil and gas supplies thro...
Is the US blundering or playing geostrategic chess?
Today we try to try to find the signal amongst the general noise level and headlines coming both from the Iran War and the wider region and from the U...
Doesn't it take two to TACO when a war has already broken out?
Today, an attempt to assess the comeback in risk sentiment and retreat in oil prices and whether we can trust President Trump's framing of the war sit...
Global markets are still only pricing for modest disruptions from Iran war.
Global markets are rightly on edge about the situation in Iran and the disruption of the lifeline of crude oil, LNG and other supplies through the Str...
It's all about the Strait of Hormuz until it's about something far bigger.
Today, a rundown of how various global markets are positioned relative to the risk of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed for various time periods....
Broadcom pulls out the stops. US foments uprisings, complicating Iran risks.
Today, the market off on a cautious footing as crude oil prices remain high after yesterday's strong bounce-back attempt, with intense headline risk i...
US market is in a world of its own. Also: Hormuz disruption timelines
Today, we note the US market's out-of-step behaviour relative to the rest of the world, as US traders have taken a buy-the-dip stance while Europe was...
Risk off as market ponders new energy crisis from Iran conflict.
Yesterday's positive close on the US equity market was a head scratcher and we try to put together a set of reasons how it was possible as we quickly...
War on Iran's regime: reactions, scenarios and uncertainties.
Today we run through what has just happened in Iran, how global markets have reacted and the key developments to watch from here as we consider a few...
Nvidia dumps: a big signal or just an options vol crush? Also, a rare earth rabbit hole.
Today, a look at the market punishing Nvidia shares, and many other AI hardware-related stocks in Thursday's session - was this mostly about options-r...
Market largely shrugs off blowout Nvidia report. Not a great look.
Let's see if the US cash session (and the action into Friday's options expiry) tells us otherwise, but the market's very restrained reaction to Nvidia...
AI disruption trade finally hit a speed bump. Nvidia and other key names reporting.
The AI disruption trade finally saw some consolidation yesterday, ironically the day after a viral report on profound AI disruption sweeping over the...
The AI apocalypse trade - when does it stop?
The AI disruption overlay trade is now bordering on the AI apocalypse trade as a well penned research report intensifies the sell-off in names that th...
SaaS stocks: high, moderate and low risk of AI disruption. Also: Nvidia up Wed.
With Ruben Dalfovo, Saxo Equity Market strategist, today we delve into how to approach and rate the prospects for beaten down software-as-a-service (S...
Recently boring Nvidia reports next week. Did we just see German green shoots?
Today, another breakdown of the remarkable dispersion in the US market, with few signs that it is ending just yet, while Europe continues to soar on r...
It's all pivotal, whether US market sentiment, USD, JPY or geopolitics
Today, a look at a modest US equity market rally as we wonder whether those pressing recent themes within AI winners vs. AI losers have overextended t...
AI overlay trades: is mean reversion the new pain trade?
Today, continuing to note the wild swings in individual names even as the overall indices look relatively flat on the surface, while wondering whether...
Can both USD and JPY launch a comeback? Also: another 200B capex story...
Today, we discuss the ongoing "AI Overlay" trade, note another AI-related company that is not a hyperscaler, but is set to spend up to USD 200 billion...
AI overlay mayhem: where is this taking us?
Today, a look at everyone attempting to put on the "AI overlay" trade and whether this unsettles confidence in the market more broadly, or just deepen...
Is what comes next what hurts everyone the most?
Today, strong notes of general concern as yesterday could have marked the beginning of a broader weakening in risk sentiment, which has so far been av...
AI disruption grenades continue to go off. JPY rattles its cage.
Today, a look at carnage for additional individual names on AI disruption fears even amidst relative market calm in US equities. Elsewhere, a break do...
US payrolls revision in focus. Gold and silver: the calmer the better?
Today, we discuss another session marked by notable divergences within the US stock universe, oil markets heading into territory that is starting to l...
Special guest Peter Garnry of Gesda Capital
Today's episode features a very special guest, Peter Garnry, CEO and co-founder of Gesda Capital, as we discuss everything from Novo Nordisk's perform...
Amazon blasted on spending bonfire, Crypto FODLed.
Today, a look at the US equity market suffering it first real broad sell-off in a while as nearly everything sold off yesterday, with the negative vib...
AI wipeout amidst broad market strength: what is the takeaway?
Today, a look at a remarkable downdraft in nearly all AI-adjacent stocks, with no category escaping the selling, even as much of the rest of the marke...
An AI disruption bomb just went off for a widening swath of companies
Today, while the software-as-a-service disruption concern has been roiling for quite some time for many companies, yesterday's market action saw a mas...
"Cosmic reward" for Palantir shareholders, apparently. USD pivotal here.
Today, a look at global risk appetite in a happy mood as precious metals markets have stabilized and the US manufacturing sector shows its first inter...
Silver crash - what's next? US equity market fragility?
Today, we unpack the Friday crash in silver, and to a lesser extent gold, noting that the Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair nominee news was a mere excuse for...
Why Trump went with the "hawkish" Fed Chair option. Oh, and earnings!
Today, a thorough rundown of big incoming earnings reports, especially Microsoft (which likely drove much of the volatility in the broader US indices...
New wave of an AI-led bullish nirvana or a bull trap?
Today, much of the AI "pick and shovels" space is aflame on Meta CapEx plans and other announcements after the latter, Tesla and Microsoft all reporte...
Trump blasts an already weak USD with offhand comments
Today, a look at the focus on FX intensifying after Trump comments blasted an already weak US dollar lower still ahead of today's not-so-anticipated F...
Lots of irons in the fire, from JPY surge to silver chop and Nasdaq 100 technicals
Today, we note the flip in US equity market internals while noting what might be driving it ahead of critical Mag7 earnings and as the Nasdaq 100 once...
A massive signal on the yen and metals mayhem intensifying
Friday gave us a huge signal that the US may be extending Japan a helping hand in preventing further yen weakness - certainly effective for putting a...
Little and not so little grenades rolling around...
Today, markets are happy to have dodged a US-Europe trade war this week, but we consider a few issues (besides the acceleration in high-impact earning...
Massive ice storm set to knock US as sentiment celebrates a supposed TACO.
Markets are rushing higher on the Trump "TACO" on tariffs against European countries and on calling off any military option for the US taking Greenlan...
Don't forget rates as we await a Davos Octagon or a Davos TACO.
Today, another rundown of any number of possible outcomes from Davos after Trump touches down to negotiate with or browbeat European counterparts on t...
Between a Greenland rock and a JGB hard place
Today, looking at markets in a bad place on concerns for US-Europe relations over Trump's Greenland ambitions, a situation that could fester for globa...
A week ahead in which a decade might happen.
Markets are nervous as it feels like an either-or setup soon with the US-Europe relationship over the Trump administration's apparent intent to "take"...
Can the bears continue to hold the line? Trump set to hammer Canada?
Today, we note that the bearish line continues to hold in US equities, as the Nasdaq 100 index can't seem to break through the local resistance and th...
Mag7 deadweight amidst strong market breadth. Silver stumbles.
Today we note that yesterday's divergences in the US equity market internals were particularly large as Mag7 and banks suffered yesterday amidst other...